Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C or below on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $41 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$41.29

Combined PnL

-$76.5

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$40.87

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares837

Combined PnL-$76.52

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	29% 232-564 (796)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.88	$10.88	+$0.01	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$31.71	$0.12	-$22.97	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.99	$0.12	-$21.87	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.27	$0.06	-$11.2	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.84	$0.05	-$8.79	26% 548-1574 (2122)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.82	$0.05	-$8.77	30% 98-230 (328)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.01	-$2.71	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.21	$0	-$0.2	56% 2268-1802 (4070)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.71

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$22.97

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.99

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$21.87

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.27

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.2

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.84

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.79

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.82

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.77

Record

30%

98-230 (328)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.71

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.