Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 10?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 85¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 10

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$128.84

Combined PnL

-$1.63

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 84.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$119.12

Total Shares140

Combined PnL-$1.02

Yes1 trader

Total Value$9.72

Total Shares72

Combined PnL-$0.61

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$25.58	$25.78	+$0.2	— 0-13 (13)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 86¢	$24.6	$24.31	-$0.29	28% 55-139 (194)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$23.77	$20.3	-$0.34	53% 85-74 (159)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$19.37	$19.19	-$0.18	68% 42-20 (62)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86¢	$17.2	$17	-$0.2	38% 88-145 (233)
CE 0xce0b...b974CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$10.33	$9.72	-$0.61	—
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.28	$4.4	+$0.13	43% 34-45 (79)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$4.34	$4.25	-$0.09	77% 43-13 (56)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.14	$3.89	-$0.25	80% 61-15 (76)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$25.58

Value

$25.78

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

0-13 (13)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.31

PnL

-$0.29

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$20.3

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.37

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$0.18

Record

68%

42-20 (62)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

0xce0b...b974CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.33

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$0.61

Record

—

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.13

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.09

Record

77%

43-13 (56)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.25

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.