Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 10?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 33¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 10

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$60.41

Combined PnL

$5.8

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$34.27

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$0.97

No7 traders

Total Value$26.14

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$4.82

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$15.49	$16.24	+$0.75	68% 42-20 (62)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 62.2¢	$11.61	$12.24	+$0.62	53% 85-74 (159)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$6.6	$8.4	+$1.8	38% 88-145 (233)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 33.7¢	$5.69	$7.1	+$1.41	43% 34-45 (79)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$6.2	$5.8	-$0.4	42% 16-22 (38)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.96	$2.57	+$0.61	39% 51-79 (130)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.66	$2.18	+$0.52	44% 46-59 (105)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.1	+$0.5	77% 43-13 (56)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$1.94	$1.89	-$0.05	80% 61-15 (76)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.86	$1.89	+$0.03	—

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.49

Value

$16.24

PnL

+$0.75

Record

68%

42-20 (62)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.61

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$1.41

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.61

Record

39%

51-79 (130)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.66

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.52

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.5

Record

77%

43-13 (56)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.