Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$310.42

Combined PnL

-$11.59

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$309.96

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$0.74

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.25

Total Shares76

Combined PnL-$10.85

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$84.37	$84	-$0.37	28% 1018-2625 (3643)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$74.55	$74.18	-$0.38	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$59.64	$59.34	-$0.3	34% 229-452 (681)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.95	$24.95	-$0	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.56	$22.61	+$0.04	59% 724-513 (1237)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.78	-$0.1	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$19.46	$19.78	+$0.32	40% 650-980 (1630)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.3	$5.34	+$0.04	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.03	$0.15	-$2.77	37% 1527-2596 (4123)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.68	$0.08	-$8	31% 161-352 (513)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.09	$0.01	-$0.07	51% 719-703 (1422)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$84.37

Value

$84

PnL

-$0.37

Record

28%

1018-2625 (3643)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$74.55

Value

$74.18

PnL

-$0.38

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$59.64

Value

$59.34

PnL

-$0.3

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$24.95

Value

$24.95

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$22.56

Value

$22.61

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.46

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$0.32

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.77

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.68

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$8

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.