Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 57¢ · $387 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$386.72
$21.01
52.9¢ → 57¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 50.9¢ | $238.33 | $266.68 | +$28.35 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $58.32 | $45.76 | -$2.24 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $38.06 | $41.38 | +$3.32 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $38.75 | $29.83 | -$8.92 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $2.57 | $3.07 | +$0.5 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
Invested
$238.33
Value
$266.68
PnL
+$28.35
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$58.32
Value
$45.76
PnL
-$2.24
Record
18%
365-1632 (1997)
Invested
$38.06
Value
$41.38
PnL
+$3.32
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$38.75
Value
$29.83
PnL
-$8.92
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$2.57
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0.5
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.