Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 30?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $780 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$779.89
-$36.35
53.4¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 54¢ | $411.5 | $373.27 | -$38.23 | 50% 1752-1734 (3486) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 47.5¢ | $173.66 | $186.26 | +$12.6 | 59% 1723-1189 (2912) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 51.4¢ | $161.76 | $154.12 | -$7.64 | 51% 623-608 (1231) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $36.54 | $36.38 | +$0 | 21% 295-1102 (1397) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $21.34 | $22.05 | +$0.71 | 53% 6464-5663 (12127) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.6¢ | $17.06 | $7.82 | -$3.8 | 57% 13544-10382 (23926) |
Invested
$411.5
Value
$373.27
PnL
-$38.23
Record
50%
1752-1734 (3486)
Invested
$173.66
Value
$186.26
PnL
+$12.6
Record
59%
1723-1189 (2912)
Invested
$161.76
Value
$154.12
PnL
-$7.64
Record
51%
623-608 (1231)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$36.54
Value
$36.38
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
295-1102 (1397)
Invested
$21.34
Value
$22.05
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
6464-5663 (12127)
Invested
$17.06
Value
$7.82
PnL
-$3.8
Record
57%
13544-10382 (23926)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.