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Yes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$240.37
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares379
Combined PnL-$240.37
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 83%No — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 63.4¢ | $240.37 | — | -$240.37 | 60% 1629-1089 (2718) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20749-13168 (33917) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6367-5579 (11946) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 600-687 (1287) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 61.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14918-27049 (41967) |
24
241532532432CTRInvested
$240.37
Value
—
PnL
-$240.37
Record
60%
1629-1089 (2718)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20749-13168 (33917)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6367-5579 (11946)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
600-687 (1287)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14918-27049 (41967)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf8bb140d...79dffd
Slug
highest-temperature-in-london-on-october-28-2026-16c