Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 4?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $443 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$442.8
$11.84
59.1¢ → 63¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $553.12 | $258.65 | +$22 | 42% 772-1070 (1842) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $181.67 | $196.57 | +$14.89 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.8¢ | $65.03 | $62.08 | +$7.11 | |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 58.7¢ | $122.99 | $132 | +$9.01 | 48% 2092-2259 (4351) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $34.16 | $37.11 | +$2.95 | 79% 11645-3073 (14718) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $15.16 | $15.04 | -$0.12 | 53% 8987-8029 (17016) |
Invested
$553.12
Value
$258.65
PnL
+$22
Record
42%
772-1070 (1842)
Both legs:
Invested
$122.99
Value
$132
PnL
+$9.01
Record
48%
2092-2259 (4351)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$34.16
Value
$37.11
PnL
+$2.95
Record
79%
11645-3073 (14718)
Invested
$15.16
Value
$15.04
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
8987-8029 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.