Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$17.7

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 70.9¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,468

Combined PnL-$20.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$17.36

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$2.91

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 71.1¢	$797.05	$793.85	-$3.2	51% 647-634 (1281)
HE hello.67	Noavg 76.2¢	$269.41	$252	-$17.41	50% 1825-1804 (3629)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$12.24	$14.29	+$2.05	59% 1800-1250 (3050)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.21	$3.07	+$0.86	57% 13705-10482 (24187)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$797.05

Value

$793.85

PnL

-$3.2

Record

51%

647-634 (1281)

hello.67

Invested

$269.41

Value

$252

PnL

-$17.41

Record

50%

1825-1804 (3629)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.24

Value

$14.29

PnL

+$2.05

Record

59%

1800-1250 (3050)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$3.07

PnL

+$0.86

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.9%

70.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.