Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on November 3?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.55

Combined PnL

-$100.19

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.55

Total Shares1,108

Combined PnL-$100.19

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	-$33.29	62% 13205-8189 (21394)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.64	$0.18	-$32.46	47% 1976-2242 (4218)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.55	$0.13	-$23.42	42% 772-1070 (1842)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$5.88	35% 17396-32076 (49472)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.07	$0.01	-$2.06	50% 472-466 (938)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.05	$0.01	-$2.04	48% 2092-2259 (4351)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.05	$0.01	-$1.04	37% 454-779 (1233)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$33.29

Record

62%

13205-8189 (21394)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.64

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$32.46

Record

47%

1976-2242 (4218)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.55

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.42

Record

42%

772-1070 (1842)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

35%

17396-32076 (49472)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.06

Record

50%

472-466 (938)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.04

Record

48%

2092-2259 (4351)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.04

Record

37%

454-779 (1233)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.