Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 1?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $903 held · ends Nov 1

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$902.73

Combined PnL

$16.04

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 89.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$898.98

Total Shares1,004

Combined PnL+$15.56

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.75

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$0.48

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 82.5¢	$463.31	$491.47	+$28.16	50% 647-636 (1283)
24 241532532432	Noavg 91.1¢	$276.61	$267.34	-$9.27	59% 1808-1259 (3067)
Istaroth	Noavg 89.7¢	$124.47	$119.01	-$2.5	20% 312-1280 (1592)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$37.23	$21.17	-$0.83	57% 13779-10552 (24331)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.1	$2.63	+$0.52	53% 6541-5757 (12298)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.17	$1.13	-$0.04	50% 1827-1806 (3633)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$463.31

Value

$491.47

PnL

+$28.16

Record

50%

647-636 (1283)

241532532432

Invested

$276.61

Value

$267.34

PnL

-$9.27

Record

59%

1808-1259 (3067)

Istaroth

Invested

$124.47

Value

$119.01

PnL

-$2.5

Record

20%

312-1280 (1592)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.23

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$0.83

Record

57%

13779-10552 (24331)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

6541-5757 (12298)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

1827-1806 (3633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.