Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 15?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$107.46
-$18.3
99.5¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.91 | -$0.06 | 35% 325-598 (923) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $24.95 | $24.93 | -$0.02 | 38% 3787-6190 (9977) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $19.73 | $20.09 | +$0.36 | 53% 2282-2055 (4337) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.97 | -$0.01 | 42% 1683-2319 (4002) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.97 | -$0.02 | 30% 1165-2723 (3888) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.97 | -$0.02 | 31% 1115-2464 (3579) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 1580-23 (1603) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20.04 | $0.08 | -$18.46 | 29% 293-715 (1008) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.12 | $0.05 | -$0.07 | 40% 2673-3942 (6615) |
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.06
Record
35%
325-598 (923)
Invested
$24.95
Value
$24.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
3787-6190 (9977)
Invested
$19.73
Value
$20.09
PnL
+$0.36
Record
53%
2282-2055 (4337)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
1683-2319 (4002)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
1165-2723 (3888)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.97
PnL
-$0.02
Record
31%
1115-2464 (3579)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1580-23 (1603)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$20.04
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$18.46
Record
29%
293-715 (1008)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.07
Record
40%
2673-3942 (6615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.