Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 71¢ · $590 held · ends Nov 14

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$590.1

Combined PnL

$4.65

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 70.5¢

-11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$571.18

Total Shares754

Combined PnL-$8.52

Yes1 trader

Total Value$18.9

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$13.17

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 82.4¢	$373.15	$196.7	+$3.07	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 72.2¢	$113.15	$120.61	+$7.46	55% 1088-874 (1962)
24 241532532432	Noavg 80.2¢	$136.14	$105.19	-$15.95	40% 620-939 (1559)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78¢	$49.35	$48.72	-$0.63	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 80¢	$71.98	$41.65	+$0.87	31% 146-327 (473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$30.64	$23.54	+$0.56	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$18.9	+$13.17	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86¢	$17.2	$15.4	-$1.8	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 86¢	$14.48	$12.97	-$1.52	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84¢	$6.99	$6.41	-$0.58	72% 823-323 (1146)

hello.67

Invested

$373.15

Value

$196.7

PnL

+$3.07

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$113.15

Value

$120.61

PnL

+$7.46

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

241532532432

Invested

$136.14

Value

$105.19

PnL

-$15.95

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$49.35

Value

$48.72

PnL

-$0.63

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$71.98

Value

$41.65

PnL

+$0.87

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.64

Value

$23.54

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$13.17

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$1.8

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$14.48

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$1.52

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.99

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$0.58

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.