Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $264 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$264.15

Combined PnL

-$19.11

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 96.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$255.37

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$2.26

Yes3 traders

Total Value$8.77

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$21.37

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$85.92	$88.44	+$2.52	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$73.81	$73.27	-$0.54	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$45.35	$45.76	+$0.42	34% 268-522 (790)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$21.56	$21.32	-$0.24	34% 240-466 (706)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$18.71	$18.67	-$0.04	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$7.77	$7.91	+$0.14	40% 633-964 (1597)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$5.92	-$12.03	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$1.89	-$3.84	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.62	$0.96	-$5.5	31% 157-344 (501)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$85.92

Value

$88.44

PnL

+$2.52

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$73.81

Value

$73.27

PnL

-$0.54

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$45.35

Value

$45.76

PnL

+$0.42

Record

34%

268-522 (790)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$21.56

Value

$21.32

PnL

-$0.24

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.71

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$7.77

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0.14

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$12.03

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$3.84

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.62

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$5.5

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.