Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $36 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$35.79

Combined PnL

-$79.26

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$34.98

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$1.42

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.8

Total Shares798

Combined PnL-$77.84

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.5	$29.99	-$1.51	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.09	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.56	$0.3	-$27.25	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$0.2	-$17.75	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.62	$0.08	-$7.54	31% 161-352 (513)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$0.06	-$5.66	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.55	$0.06	-$5.48	51% 719-703 (1422)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.52	$0.05	-$4.47	26% 548-1577 (2125)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$70.61	$0.04	-$9.22	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.45	37% 1527-2596 (4123)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$29.99

PnL

-$1.51

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$27.25

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$17.75

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.62

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.54

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.66

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.48

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.47

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.61

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$9.22

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.