Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on November 14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $31 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 89%
$30.98
-$63.7
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 34% 231-458 (689) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $17.95 | $0.3 | -$17.66 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $16.75 | $0.28 | -$16.48 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.8 | $0.15 | -$8.66 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.73 | $0.09 | -$5.63 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.72 | $0.08 | -$4.64 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $36.54 | $0.07 | -$6.95 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.21 | $0.04 | -$2.17 | 26% 548-1574 (2122) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.53 | $0.03 | -$1.51 | 29% 1096-2660 (3756) |
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
34%
231-458 (689)
Invested
$17.95
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$17.66
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.75
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$16.48
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$8.66
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$5.63
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4.72
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$4.64
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$36.54
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$6.95
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$2.21
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$2.17
Record
26%
548-1574 (2122)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.51
Record
29%
1096-2660 (3756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.