Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on November 14?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (9%) · No at 100¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 9%

Total Value

$165.29

Combined PnL

-$67.33

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$164.92

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.37

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$67.41

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$164.84	$164.92	+$0.08	99% 1195-12 (1207)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$0.1	-$17.85	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.75	$0.09	-$16.66	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.8	$0.05	-$8.75	33% 220-451 (671)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.05	$0.04	-$7.01	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$0.03	-$5.7	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.72	$0.03	-$4.7	31% 146-327 (473)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.21	$0.01	-$2.19	26% 548-1574 (2122)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.53	$0.01	-$1.52	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.32	$0	-$0.31	29% 3158-7813 (10971)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$164.84

Value

$164.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$17.85

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.75

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.66

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.8

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.75

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.01

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.7

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.72

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.7

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.19

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.52

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

PnL

-$0.31

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.