Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C or below on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$100.32

Combined PnL

-$66

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.37

Total Shares731

Combined PnL-$66.05

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1195-12 (1207)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$0.1	-$17.85	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.75	$0.09	-$16.66	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.8	$0.05	-$8.75	33% 220-451 (671)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.05	$0.04	-$7.01	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$0.03	-$5.7	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.72	$0.03	-$4.7	31% 146-327 (473)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.21	$0.01	-$2.19	26% 548-1574 (2122)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.68	$0.01	-$1.67	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.53	$0.01	-$1.52	29% 1096-2660 (3756)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$17.85

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.75

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.66

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.8

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.75

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.01

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.7

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.72

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.7

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.19

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.67

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.52

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.