Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on November 14?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $248 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$247.89

Combined PnL

-$53.04

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$237.57

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$3.79

Yes6 traders

Total Value$10.32

Total Shares938

Combined PnL-$56.84

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$95.74	$96.38	+$0.64	34% 263-518 (781)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$62.68	$64.69	+$2.01	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$45.97	$46.63	+$0.66	29% 232-564 (796)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$19.54	$19.91	+$0.37	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$9.84	$9.96	+$0.12	99% 1195-12 (1207)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$20.44	$5.34	-$15.09	40% 620-939 (1559)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$20.15	$2.72	-$17.43	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$69.5	$0.88	-$10.42	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$0.69	-$5.03	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.72	$0.57	-$4.15	31% 146-327 (473)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$66.18	$0.11	-$4.7	36% 3727-6719 (10446)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$95.74

Value

$96.38

PnL

+$0.64

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.68

Value

$64.69

PnL

+$2.01

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$45.97

Value

$46.63

PnL

+$0.66

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.54

Value

$19.91

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$9.84

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.12

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.44

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$15.09

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.15

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$17.43

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.5

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$10.42

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$5.03

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.72

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$4.15

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.18

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.7

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.