Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 14?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 86¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$234.12

Combined PnL

$30.59

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 86¢

+28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$145.75

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$10.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$88.37

Total Shares552

Combined PnL+$20.07

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 64¢	$48	$54.75	+$6.75	29% 232-564 (796)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$53.04	$35.63	-$17.41	55% 1088-874 (1962)
Haradwaith	Noavg 68.5¢	$127.53	$31.95	+$1.95	31% 146-327 (473)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$31.6	+$13.64	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$23.22	$21.9	-$1.32	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 65¢	$14.18	$15.93	+$1.75	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$14.6	+$2	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$10.88	$10.88	+$0	40% 620-939 (1559)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.73	$10.08	+$4.35	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7.23	$6.63	-$0.6	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$74.16	$0.18	+$19.49	44% 5036-6461 (11497)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$54.75

PnL

+$6.75

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.04

Value

$35.63

PnL

-$17.41

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

Haradwaith

Invested

$127.53

Value

$31.95

PnL

+$1.95

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$31.6

PnL

+$13.64

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$23.22

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$1.32

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$14.18

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$1.75

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$4.35

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.23

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.16

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$19.49

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.