Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on November 14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 50¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$147.83
$77.47
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $77.09 | $62.4 | +$12.24 | 40% 633-964 (1597) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.73 | $32.13 | +$26.4 | 39% 3622-5713 (9335) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.5 | $15 | -$1.5 | 28% 1016-2624 (3640) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $11.7 | $11.24 | -$0.46 | 52% 1661-1516 (3177) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $12.87 | $10.91 | -$1.96 | 30% 1031-2401 (3432) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10 | -$0.8 | 53% 6992-6143 (13135) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $109.77 | $4.4 | +$43.56 | 31% 157-344 (501) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $4.25 | $1.75 | +$0 | 65% 4303-2320 (6623) |
Invested
$77.09
Value
$62.4
PnL
+$12.24
Record
40%
633-964 (1597)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$32.13
PnL
+$26.4
Record
39%
3622-5713 (9335)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.5
Record
28%
1016-2624 (3640)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$11.24
PnL
-$0.46
Record
52%
1661-1516 (3177)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$10.91
PnL
-$1.96
Record
30%
1031-2401 (3432)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
6992-6143 (13135)
HaradwaithInvested
$109.77
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$43.56
Record
31%
157-344 (501)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
4303-2320 (6623)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.