Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 11?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 50¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$86.26
$3.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $39.3 | $36.91 | -$0.61 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 55.5¢ | $31.87 | $28.7 | -$3.17 | 38% 88-145 (233) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 45.9¢ | $9.79 | $10.65 | +$0.86 | 77% 53-16 (69) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $3.22 | $10 | +$6.78 | 77% 43-13 (56) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.