Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 10?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 10

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$271.04

Combined PnL

$14.59

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 62¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$271.04

Total Shares419

Combined PnL+$14.59

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 59.2¢	$93.91	$107.92	+$14.01	10% 15-135 (150)
24 241532532432	Noavg 67.2¢	$101.55	$91.36	-$10.19	—
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$21.38	$20.17	-$1.21	68% 42-20 (62)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$13.96	$15.77	+$1.81	28% 55-139 (194)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 61¢	$9.15	$10.2	+$1.05	77% 43-13 (56)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 58¢	$7.42	$8.7	+$1.28	6% 6-91 (97)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.36	$6.97	+$0.61	39% 51-79 (130)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$10.71	$5.81	+$6.75	53% 85-74 (159)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3.66	$4.15	+$0.49	43% 34-45 (79)

graynotebook19

Invested

$93.91

Value

$107.92

PnL

+$14.01

Record

10%

15-135 (150)

241532532432

Invested

$101.55

Value

$91.36

PnL

-$10.19

Record

—

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$21.38

Value

$20.17

PnL

-$1.21

Record

68%

42-20 (62)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.96

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$1.81

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$1.05

Record

77%

43-13 (56)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$7.42

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$1.28

Record

6-91 (97)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0.61

Record

39%

51-79 (130)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.71

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$6.75

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.49

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.