Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on November 8?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $41 held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$40.57

Combined PnL

$10.04

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$27.92

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.65

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$10.04

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$87.89	$27.92	-$0	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$2.54	$12.64	+$10.1	37% 913-1562 (2475)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.07	$0.02	-$0.06	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$87.89

Value

$27.92

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$10.1

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.