Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on November 6?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.4¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 67%
$201.62
$66.63
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $99.67 | $99.36 | -$0.3 | 97% 264-7 (271) |
ZW zwaaan<$100 | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $31.04 | $94.05 | -$3.23 | 54% 136-118 (254) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $0.98 | $3.16 | +$0.57 | 72% 13920-5521 (19441) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 13.2¢ | $40.73 | $1.95 | -$31 | 17% 4503-22046 (26549) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.6¢ | $7.23 | $1.3 | -$5.93 | 52% 30994-29002 (59996) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Noavg 1.8¢ | $12.28 | $0.69 | +$106.57 | 38% 2395-3831 (6226) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 82.8¢ | $15.84 | $0.57 | +$1.09 | 58% 21328-15480 (36808) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $11.1 | $0.42 | +$1.83 | 57% 729-561 (1290) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $3.08 | $0.11 | -$2.96 | 42% 2362-3236 (5598) |
Invested
$99.67
Value
$99.36
PnL
-$0.3
Record
97%
264-7 (271)
Invested
$31.04
Value
$94.05
PnL
-$3.23
Record
54%
136-118 (254)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
$3.16
PnL
+$0.57
Record
72%
13920-5521 (19441)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$40.73
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$31
Record
17%
4503-22046 (26549)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.23
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$5.93
Record
52%
30994-29002 (59996)
Invested
$12.28
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$106.57
Record
38%
2395-3831 (6226)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$0.57
PnL
+$1.09
Record
58%
21328-15480 (36808)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$0.42
PnL
+$1.83
Record
57%
729-561 (1290)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$2.96
Record
42%
2362-3236 (5598)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.