Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on November 3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 16¢ · $26 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$26.1
-$9.46
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yes | $11.82 | $11.82 | -$6.18 | 43% 1325-1779 (3104) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $8.36 | $8.4 | +$0.05 | 27% 6631-18348 (24979) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $3.2 | -$1.81 | 20% 2455-9831 (12286) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.68 | $2.68 | -$1.51 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
Invested
$11.82
Value
$11.82
PnL
-$6.18
Record
43%
1325-1779 (3104)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$8.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
27%
6631-18348 (24979)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$1.81
Record
20%
2455-9831 (12286)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$1.51
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.