Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 1?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 1.0¢ · $119 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 33%
$119.1
$205.5
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $39.41 | $65.41 | +$26.24 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $202.59 | $50 | +$335.43 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 42.6¢ | $165.84 | $3.69 | -$156.17 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.