Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on November 2?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$271.35
$23
74.2¢ → 82.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 76¢ | $125.77 | $144.75 | +$18.98 | 50% 675-675 (1350) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $46.74 | $39.69 | -$0.38 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $33.95 | $37.94 | +$3.99 | 50% 1916-1879 (3795) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $27.02 | $25.38 | -$1.64 | 55% 472-392 (864) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $27.65 | $20.78 | +$1.99 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $2.75 | $2.8 | +$0.05 | 59% 1929-1356 (3285) |
Invested
$125.77
Value
$144.75
PnL
+$18.98
Record
50%
675-675 (1350)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$46.74
Value
$39.69
PnL
-$0.38
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$33.95
Value
$37.94
PnL
+$3.99
Record
50%
1916-1879 (3795)
Invested
$27.02
Value
$25.38
PnL
-$1.64
Record
55%
472-392 (864)
Invested
$27.65
Value
$20.78
PnL
+$1.99
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
1929-1356 (3285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.