Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $636 held · ends Oct 30

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$636.38

Combined PnL

$4.64

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 74¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$498.74

Total Shares774

Combined PnL-$17.63

Yes2 traders

Total Value$137.64

Total Shares368

Combined PnL+$22.28

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 66.4¢	$313.66	$300.51	-$12.96	23% 287-958 (1245)
HE hello.67	Noavg 64.9¢	$192.53	$188.47	-$4.06	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$110.36	$130.34	+$19.98	51% 602-578 (1180)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$10.37	$9.76	-$0.61	57% 13341-10198 (23539)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$7.3	+$2.3	60% 1670-1125 (2795)

Istaroth

Invested

$313.66

Value

$300.51

PnL

-$12.96

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

hello.67

Invested

$192.53

Value

$188.47

PnL

-$4.06

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.36

Value

$130.34

PnL

+$19.98

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.37

Value

$9.76

PnL

-$0.61

Record

57%

13341-10198 (23539)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$2.3

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.