Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $66 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$65.51

Combined PnL

-$9.06

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$64.28

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.24

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$9.08

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.4	$20.39	-$0.01	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$13.25	$13.18	-$0.07	51% 818-797 (1615)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$9.83	$9.93	+$0.1	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$7.14	$7.13	-$0.01	58% 820-591 (1411)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.13	$5.12	-$0.01	24% 752-2353 (3105)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5	$5	+$0	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$3.5	$3.52	+$0.02	98% 1504-23 (1527)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.7	$0.67	-$8.03	30% 250-582 (832)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.62	$0.57	-$1.05	42% 754-1062 (1816)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.18

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.93

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

752-2353 (3105)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$8.03

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$1.05

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.