Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $48 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$48.49

Combined PnL

-$30.36

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$46.98

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.49

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.5

Total Shares501

Combined PnL-$30.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$29.61	$29.91	+$0.3	28% 1001-2590 (3591)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.97	+$0	40% 3401-5040 (8441)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$4.42	$4.57	+$0.15	53% 1159-1020 (2179)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.5	$2.54	+$0.04	99% 858-9 (867)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$19.67	$0.91	-$18.76	60% 2188-1454 (3642)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.27	$0.31	-$8.97	57% 1056-787 (1843)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$3.4	$0.27	-$3.13	37% 481-815 (1296)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	13% 54-364 (418)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.61

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.3

Record

28%

1001-2590 (3591)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

3401-5040 (8441)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

1159-1020 (2179)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

858-9 (867)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.67

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$18.76

Record

60%

2188-1454 (3642)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.27

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$8.97

Record

57%

1056-787 (1843)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$3.13

Record

37%

481-815 (1296)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

54-364 (418)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.