Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 4?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 60¢ · $698 held · ends Nov 4

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$697.86

Combined PnL

$29.91

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 59.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$412.57

Total Shares701

Combined PnL+$37.22

Yes1 trader

Total Value$36.26

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$7.31

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 62.2¢	$303.63	$278.3	-$25.34	48% 2112-2286 (4398)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Yesavg 36.4¢	$202.44	$189.03	-$13.41	42% 785-1085 (1870)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.4¢	$128.66	$120.12	-$8.53
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$73.78	$68.9	-$4.88
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 22.9¢	$35.7	$71.73	+$64.85	47% 8092-9266 (17358)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$190.34	$60.01	-$4.91	15% 430-2354 (2784)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$37.26	$36	-$15.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.5¢	$23.7	$24	+$10.89
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$43.57	$36.26	-$7.31	53% 3719-3330 (7049)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$28.83	$28.25	-$0.58	53% 9749-8519 (18268)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$15.92	$15.32	-$0.6	53% 7964-7067 (15031)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$29.55	$10.41	-$0.41	79% 11970-3164 (15134)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$6.15	$5.7	-$0.45	17% 4208-19852 (24060)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.85	-$0.25	50% 481-480 (961)

hello.67

Invested

$303.63

Value

$278.3

PnL

-$25.34

Record

48%

2112-2286 (4398)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$202.44

Value

$189.03

PnL

-$13.41

Record

42%

785-1085 (1870)

Both legs:

Yes$128.6636.4¢-$8.53

No$73.7861¢-$4.88

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$35.7

Value

$71.73

PnL

+$64.85

Record

47%

8092-9266 (17358)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$190.34

Value

$60.01

PnL

-$4.91

Record

15%

430-2354 (2784)

Both legs:

Invested

$43.57

Value

$36.26

PnL

-$7.31

Record

53%

3719-3330 (7049)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$28.83

Value

$28.25

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

9749-8519 (18268)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$15.92

Value

$15.32

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

7964-7067 (15031)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$29.55

Value

$10.41

PnL

-$0.41

Record

79%

11970-3164 (15134)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.45

Record

17%

4208-19852 (24060)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

481-480 (961)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.