Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (94%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on November 1?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 6.0¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 33%
$173.53
$10.84
Research grade
AvoidNo at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 49¢ | $78.54 | $152.27 | +$12.02 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 55.2¢ | $30.24 | $13.74 | -$16.5 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $12.04 | $7.52 | +$15.32 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.