Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$131.66

Combined PnL

-$2.06

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.9¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$131.45

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$0.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.21

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$1.15

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$29.04	$29.58	+$0.54	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$34.17	$28.21	+$0.81	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.26	$24.2	-$0.06	63% 720-431 (1151)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$20.12	$20.05	-$0.07	50% 704-694 (1398)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$19.42	$19.72	+$0.3	34% 240-466 (706)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.98	$4.96	-$0.02	58% 692-501 (1193)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1243-13 (1256)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.72	$2.25	-$2.41	27% 679-1844 (2523)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.21	-$1.15	39% 3622-5713 (9335)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.04

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.54

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.17

Value

$28.21

PnL

+$0.81

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$24.26

Value

$24.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.12

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.42

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$0.3

Record

34%

240-466 (706)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$30.72

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.41

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.15

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.