Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on November 14?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$86.3
-$14.45
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.9 | $29.97 | +$0.08 | 42% 1625-2287 (3912) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.95 | $19.98 | +$0.03 | 28% 1018-2625 (3643) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $16.88 | $17.34 | +$0.45 | 40% 650-980 (1630) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $16.04 | $16.46 | +$0.42 | 52% 1696-1538 (3234) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 1281-15 (1296) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.16 | $0.03 | -$6.13 | 27% 688-1902 (2590) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $63.33 | $0.01 | -$7.04 | 43% 5066-6598 (11664) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.36 | $0.01 | -$1.36 | 39% 3636-5765 (9401) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 55% 2285-1885 (4170) |
Invested
$29.9
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
42%
1625-2287 (3912)
Invested
$19.95
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
28%
1018-2625 (3643)
Invested
$16.88
Value
$17.34
PnL
+$0.45
Record
40%
650-980 (1630)
Invested
$16.04
Value
$16.46
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
1696-1538 (3234)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1281-15 (1296)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.13
Record
27%
688-1902 (2590)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$63.33
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$7.04
Record
43%
5066-6598 (11664)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.36
Record
39%
3636-5765 (9401)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
55%
2285-1885 (4170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.