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Istaroth<$100NoNoYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesNoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 31?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 50%
Total Value
$73.31
Combined PnL
-$188.02
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$73.31
Total Shares73
Combined PnL+$26.32
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares729
Combined PnL-$214.34
No — 38%Yes — 62%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $42.78 | $69.01 | +$26.23 | 20% 329-1356 (1685) |
HI HighTempTation<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.21 | $4.3 | +$0.09 | 99% 1577-4 (1581) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $200.24 | — | -$200.24 | 50% 655-653 (1308) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $14.1 | — | -$14.1 | 55% 435-356 (791) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21161-13476 (34637) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 1872-2309 (4181) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1862-1833 (3695) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$42.78
Value
$69.01
PnL
+$26.23
Record
20%
329-1356 (1685)
HI
HighTempTation<$100Invested
$4.21
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.09
Record
99%
1577-4 (1581)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTRInvested
$200.24
Value
—
PnL
-$200.24
Record
50%
655-653 (1308)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$14.1
Value
—
PnL
-$14.1
Record
55%
435-356 (791)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21161-13476 (34637)
12
123987456<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
1872-2309 (4181)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1862-1833 (3695)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9cd04ab7...93aa0f
Slug
highest-temperature-in-karachi-on-october-31-2026-35c