Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C or higher on November 8?

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 100¢ · $595 held · ends Nov 8

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$595.41

Combined PnL

$13.19

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 99.5¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$497.27

Total Shares571

Combined PnL+$25.9

No11 traders

Total Value$98.14

Total Shares497

Combined PnL-$12.71

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 79.1¢	$377.18	$405.33	+$28.15	37% 913-1562 (2475)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 67.4¢	$54.21	$56.56	+$2.35	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 15.9¢	$54.93	$40.2	-$5.38	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$27.09	$24.4	+$11.51	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$34.02	$17.26	-$0.73	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$10.01	$16.78	+$6.76	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$16.48	$10.01	-$6.47	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$12	$8.7	-$3.3	62% 697-436 (1133)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$5.5	$8.1	+$2.6	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 37.1¢	$8.92	$5.01	-$3.91	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	No	$3	$3	+$0	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$5.05	$0.02	-$5.04	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 35.8¢	$5.08	$0.01	-$5.06	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$4.34	$0.01	-$4.33	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 28.9¢	$5.05	$0.01	-$2.96	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1.02	$0.01	-$1.01	44% 2445-3051 (5496)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$377.18

Value

$405.33

PnL

+$28.15

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.21

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$2.35

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$54.93

Value

$40.2

PnL

-$5.38

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$27.09

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$11.51

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.02

Value

$17.26

PnL

-$0.73

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$16.78

PnL

+$6.76

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.48

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$6.47

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$3.3

Record

62%

697-436 (1133)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$2.6

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$8.92

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$3.91

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.04

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.06

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.33

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.96

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.01

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.