Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 2?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $25 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$25.04
-$123.65
44¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $17.44 | $16.61 | -$0.83 | 55% 556-450 (1006) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $24.92 | $8.28 | -$0.36 | 57% 17228-12894 (30122) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $86.7 | $0.08 | -$86.62 | 54% 3380-2917 (6297) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $7 | $0.04 | -$18.73 | 35% 555-1035 (1590) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $57.54 | $0.03 | -$17.11 | 54% 7492-6399 (13891) |
Invested
$17.44
Value
$16.61
PnL
-$0.83
Record
55%
556-450 (1006)
Invested
$24.92
Value
$8.28
PnL
-$0.36
Record
57%
17228-12894 (30122)
Invested
$86.7
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$86.62
Record
54%
3380-2917 (6297)
Invested
$7
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$18.73
Record
35%
555-1035 (1590)
Invested
$57.54
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$17.11
Record
54%
7492-6399 (13891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.