Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 1?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 44¢ · $336 held · ends Nov 1

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$335.76

Combined PnL

$45.06

Smart Money Entry

38.3¢ → 44¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$196.91

Total Shares439

Combined PnL+$39.8

No2 traders

Total Value$138.84

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$5.25

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$161.46	$191.11	+$29.65	47% 675-754 (1429)
24 241532532432	Noavg 52.5¢	$124.24	$129.53	+$5.29	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 55¢	$9.35	$9.31	-$0.04	72% 8255-3139 (11394)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$7.16	$4.5	-$1.48	20% 318-1310 (1628)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$53.7	$1.3	+$11.63	53% 6559-5774 (12333)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.46

Value

$191.11

PnL

+$29.65

Record

47%

675-754 (1429)

241532532432

Invested

$124.24

Value

$129.53

PnL

+$5.29

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.31

PnL

-$0.04

Record

72%

8255-3139 (11394)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.16

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$1.48

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.7

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$11.63

Record

53%

6559-5774 (12333)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.