Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on November 2?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$116.16
-$33.79
21.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-38 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $55.76 | $55.41 | +$18.39 | 53% 7522-6644 (14166) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $75.48 | $34.76 | -$40.72 | 50% 725-718 (1443) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $13.08 | $11.94 | -$1.14 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $5.66 | $7.06 | +$1.41 | 56% 3732-2932 (6664) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $4.99 | $6.92 | +$0.62 | 58% 6025-4386 (10411) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $12.4 | $0.06 | -$12.34 | 57% 2334-1766 (4100) |
Invested
$55.76
Value
$55.41
PnL
+$18.39
Record
53%
7522-6644 (14166)
Invested
$75.48
Value
$34.76
PnL
-$40.72
Record
50%
725-718 (1443)
Invested
$13.08
Value
$11.94
PnL
-$1.14
Record
50%
2032-1997 (4029)
Invested
$5.66
Value
$7.06
PnL
+$1.41
Record
56%
3732-2932 (6664)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$6.92
PnL
+$0.62
Record
58%
6025-4386 (10411)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$12.34
Record
57%
2334-1766 (4100)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.