Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 30?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $119 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$118.92
$4.12
70.8¢ → 72.2¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $70.67 | $70.67 | +$0 | 51% 602-578 (1180) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $50.97 | $40.24 | +$4.55 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $8.44 | $8.01 | -$0.42 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.