Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$112.33

Combined PnL

-$4.76

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 96.2¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$107.02

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$5.9

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.29

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$1.14

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$29.05	$27.29	-$1.76	58% 859-610 (1469)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$22.3	$19.86	-$2.44	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$18.76	$17.37	-$1.39	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$10.06	$9.86	-$0.2	52% 936-867 (1803)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$9.67	$9.53	-$0.14	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.3	$9.27	-$0.03	57% 831-625 (1456)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$5.02	$4.98	-$0.05	52% 900-835 (1735)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$10.77	$4.79	+$0.49	24% 779-2522 (3301)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$3.07	$4.16	+$1.1	38% 323-526 (849)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.5	$2.23	-$0.27	99% 1580-23 (1603)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.96	$1.85	-$0.11	47% 1230-1384 (2614)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$1.09	$1.13	+$0.04	71% 939-382 (1321)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$27.29

PnL

-$1.76

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.3

Value

$19.86

PnL

-$2.44

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.76

Value

$17.37

PnL

-$1.39

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.06

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.67

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.27

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$0.49

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.07

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$1.1

Record

38%

323-526 (849)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.27

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.04

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.