Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $191 held · ends Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$191.23

Combined PnL

$15.04

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 96.5¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$149.32

Total Shares183

Combined PnL-$18.34

Yes3 traders

Total Value$41.91

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$33.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$52.72	$53.64	+$0.95	59% 724-513 (1237)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$46.1	$29.16	-$0.18	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$4.12	$21.02	+$16.9	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$4.54	$16.42	+$11.88	34% 252-482 (734)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$20.64	$14.51	-$6.13	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$16.6	$12.28	-$4.32	51% 719-703 (1422)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$10.04	$9.96	-$0.08	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$12.67	$9.07	-$3.59	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$8.78	$8.54	-$0.24	27% 688-1902 (2590)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$8.99	$6.44	-$2.56	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$16.09	$5.72	-$2.18	63% 736-439 (1175)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$14.86	$4.47	+$4.6	40% 650-980 (1630)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$52.72

Value

$53.64

PnL

+$0.95

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.1

Value

$29.16

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.12

Value

$21.02

PnL

+$16.9

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.54

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$11.88

Record

34%

252-482 (734)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.64

Value

$14.51

PnL

-$6.13

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$12.28

PnL

-$4.32

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.67

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$3.59

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.78

Value

$8.54

PnL

-$0.24

Record

27%

688-1902 (2590)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$2.56

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$16.09

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$2.18

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.86

Value

$4.47

PnL

+$4.6

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.