Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on November 8?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $172 held · ended Nov 8

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$172.49

Combined PnL

$119.62

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$145.49

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$121.24

No5 traders

Total Value$27

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$1.62

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$19.04	$119.57	+$100.53	37% 913-1562 (2475)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$3.23	$18.42	+$15.19	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$1.98	$7.5	+$5.52	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$7.12	$6.9	-$0.22	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$5.13	$5.62	+$0.49	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$7.15	$5.22	-$1.92	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$4.65	$4.66	+$0.02	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$4.58	$4.6	+$0.02	53% 4656-4095 (8751)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$119.57

PnL

+$100.53

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$18.42

PnL

+$15.19

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$5.52

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.12

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.49

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$1.92

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.58

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.1%

88.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.