Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on November 5?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$107.1
-$18.64
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $32.14 | $32.15 | +$0.01 | 42% 1214-1705 (2919) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.01 | 61% 16009-10298 (26307) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.01 | 51% 3739-3587 (7326) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.16 | $8.17 | +$0 | 55% 4477-3683 (8160) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.7 | $6.71 | +$0 | 50% 9885-9867 (19752) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.19 | $0.1 | -$18.69 | 43% 816-1062 (1878) |
Invested
$32.14
Value
$32.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
42%
1214-1705 (2919)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
61%
16009-10298 (26307)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
3739-3587 (7326)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4477-3683 (8160)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9885-9867 (19752)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$18.69
Record
43%
816-1062 (1878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.