Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 6?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $607 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$607.25
$136.24
30.6¢ → 56.5¢
+85% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-46 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 30¢ | $374.7 | $533.79 | +$159.09 | 41% 838-1207 (2045) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $54.71 | $31.13 | -$23.57 | 53% 8553-7624 (16177) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $16.03 | $20.14 | +$4.11 | 62% 658-398 (1056) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $30.71 | $16.87 | -$0.31 | 58% 21212-15411 (36623) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $5.01 | $2.82 | -$2.19 | 54% 10589-9151 (19740) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $3.06 | $2.18 | -$0.89 | 41% 816-1170 (1986) |
Invested
$374.7
Value
$533.79
PnL
+$159.09
Record
41%
838-1207 (2045)
Invested
$54.71
Value
$31.13
PnL
-$23.57
Record
53%
8553-7624 (16177)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$16.03
Value
$20.14
PnL
+$4.11
Record
62%
658-398 (1056)
Invested
$30.71
Value
$16.87
PnL
-$0.31
Record
58%
21212-15411 (36623)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$2.19
Record
54%
10589-9151 (19740)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.89
Record
41%
816-1170 (1986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.