Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 5?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$262.96

Combined PnL

-$11.92

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 97.8¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$257.5

Total Shares263

Combined PnL+$3.58

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.1

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$15.5

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$72.86	$73.39	+$0.53	51% 3760-3612 (7372)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$61.79	$61.87	+$0.08	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$54.72	$55.45	+$0.74	50% 9910-9917 (19827)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96¢	$35.25	$35.92	+$0.67	61% 16040-10339 (26379)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$19.05	$19.57	+$0.52	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$10.26	$11.3	+$1.04	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.96	$4.13	-$13.83	43% 817-1080 (1897)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$25.12	$0.36	-$0.89	46% 10394-12106 (22500)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$9.21	$0.36	+$0.58	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.6	$0.24	-$1.36	20% 2781-10948 (13729)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$72.86

Value

$73.39

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

3760-3612 (7372)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$61.79

Value

$61.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$54.72

Value

$55.45

PnL

+$0.74

Record

50%

9910-9917 (19827)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$35.25

Value

$35.92

PnL

+$0.67

Record

61%

16040-10339 (26379)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.05

Value

$19.57

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.26

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$1.04

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.96

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$13.83

Record

43%

817-1080 (1897)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.12

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.89

Record

46%

10394-12106 (22500)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.21

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$1.36

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.