Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 4?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
$5.34
67.5¢ → 68¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $588.93 | $592.97 | +$4.04 | 44% 754-963 (1717) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.7¢ | $351.11 | $358.18 | +$7.07 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $237.82 | $234.79 | -$3.03 | |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $201.36 | $204.06 | +$2.7 | 58% 2445-1789 (4234) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $408.37 | $193.6 | -$5.97 | 16% 427-2300 (2727) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $106.1 | $108.71 | +$31.96 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.1¢ | $86.93 | $84.9 | -$37.93 | |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $19.8 | $20.4 | +$0.6 | 46% 10069-11760 (21829) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $16.98 | $18.98 | +$2 | 18% 4199-19783 (23982) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $14.88 | $9.19 | -$0.18 | 58% 18577-13713 (32290) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 71.2¢ | $7.22 | $6.89 | -$0.33 | 53% 9602-8425 (18027) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $3.4 | +$0.55 | 53% 3643-3266 (6909) |
Invested
$588.93
Value
$592.97
PnL
+$4.04
Record
44%
754-963 (1717)
Both legs:
Invested
$201.36
Value
$204.06
PnL
+$2.7
Record
58%
2445-1789 (4234)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$408.37
Value
$193.6
PnL
-$5.97
Record
16%
427-2300 (2727)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
46%
10069-11760 (21829)
2B9S<$100Invested
$16.98
Value
$18.98
PnL
+$2
Record
18%
4199-19783 (23982)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$9.19
PnL
-$0.18
Record
58%
18577-13713 (32290)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$6.89
PnL
-$0.33
Record
53%
9602-8425 (18027)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.55
Record
53%
3643-3266 (6909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.