Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on November 4?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 95¢ · $355 held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$355.4

Combined PnL

-$41.3

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 94.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$244.22

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$21.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$111.18

Total Shares809

Combined PnL-$62.53

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 80.7¢	$183.1	$120.93	+$20.98	15% 430-2354 (2784)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$92.02	$62.81	-$29.21	58% 2448-1791 (4239)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$81.69	$48.37	-$33.32	44% 771-970 (1741)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$38.18	$36.12	-$2.06	62% 14557-9101 (23658)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$37.08	$32.33	+$2.51	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$31.02	$30.88	-$0.13	51% 3491-3371 (6862)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$14.16	$14.28	+$0.12	60% 11493-7614 (19107)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.9	$4.98	+$0.08	53% 9749-8519 (18268)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.96	$4.7	-$0.27	47% 1604-1792 (3396)

Istaroth

Invested

$183.1

Value

$120.93

PnL

+$20.98

Record

15%

430-2354 (2784)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.02

Value

$62.81

PnL

-$29.21

Record

58%

2448-1791 (4239)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.69

Value

$48.37

PnL

-$33.32

Record

44%

771-970 (1741)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$38.18

Value

$36.12

PnL

-$2.06

Record

62%

14557-9101 (23658)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.08

Value

$32.33

PnL

+$2.51

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$31.02

Value

$30.88

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

3491-3371 (6862)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.16

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$0.12

Record

60%

11493-7614 (19107)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

9749-8519 (18268)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

1604-1792 (3396)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.