Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 2

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$301.17

Combined PnL

$15.03

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 77.6¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$288.41

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$13.82

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.76

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$1.21

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 77.6¢	$242.06	$242.06	+$22.93	50% 670-669 (1339)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$56.39	$34.7	-$7.56	18% 358-1583 (1941)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$20.74	$12.76	+$1.21	42% 1724-2356 (4080)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 88¢	$13.2	$11.65	-$1.55	59% 1908-1339 (3247)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$242.06

Value

$242.06

PnL

+$22.93

Record

50%

670-669 (1339)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$56.39

Value

$34.7

PnL

-$7.56

Record

18%

358-1583 (1941)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.74

Value

$12.76

PnL

+$1.21

Record

42%

1724-2356 (4080)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$11.65

PnL

-$1.55

Record

59%

1908-1339 (3247)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.5%

77.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.